On Nov. 4, the day after the vote, the S&P 500 gained 1.58%, its third-best day after a midterm since 1970, the first midterm in this record with trading on Election Day. The Dow added 1,569.40 points, or 3.03%, its best day since April 2025.
Dashed: 1930 and 1938, the two midterms followed by a fall. Yellow: 2026 so far.
Drag through the year to see where every midterm stood, day by day.
Each line starts at the last close before Election Day and runs one year. Of the 24 midterms from 1930 to 2022, the index was higher a year later after 22. It fell after 1930 (−38.7%) and 1938 (−4.5%), and has risen after all 21 since; +14.2% in the middle. The first weeks are mixed: 60 days after the starting close, 6 of 24 were still below it. 2026 so far: +1.95% from its Nov. 2 close.
S&P 500 and Dow closes through Nov. 4, 2026, from Yahoo Finance. Price changes only, before dividends and inflation. This is a record of what happened, not a forecast, and nothing here is investing advice.
Whichever party gained House seats, the S&P 500 was usually higher a year later: 11 of 12 times after Democratic gains, 11 of 12 after Republican gains. With 12 midterms in each group, the 2.4-point gap between their middles is too small to read as a pattern. In 21 of the 24 midterms the party that gained was the one out of the White House. In 2026, Democrats have gained House seats so far, in AP calls as of 1:26 p.m. ET, Nov. 4.
Filled dots: 1970 to 2022, when the market was open on Election Day, so the move is one day. Among them, 2026 is third, behind 1982 (+3.91%) and 2018 (+2.12%). Hollow dots: 1930 to 1966, when it was closed, so the move spans two days.
Each line is the S&P 500’s close, as a change from its last close before Election Day, for one year after the vote. “A year later” is the last close on or before the one-year mark from that starting close. The bold line is the middle of the 24 midterms on each day. Index levels only: dividends and inflation are not counted.
“The party that gained House seats” uses each midterm’s net House change for the president’s party from The American Presidency Project at UC Santa Barbara (the source for No. 5), and for 1930 the House’s own party divisions (Republicans fell from 270 to 218 seats). The House’s own counts differ from it by a seat or two in some years, never on which party gained. 2026 uses the AP’s calls so far.
Yahoo’s daily S&P 500 series begins Dec. 30, 1927, so 1930 is the first midterm it covers. Before March 4, 1957, the series is S&P’s 90-stock index; that day it grew to 500 companies and took the S&P 500 name. For 1946 to 2022, every starting close, closing level and change matches a published table; 1930 to 1942 come from Yahoo alone.
“The day after” compares the first close after Election Day with the last close on or before it. In 1930 through 1966 the market was closed on Election Day, so in those years the comparison spans two days.
The Dow’s move is its Nov. 4 close against Nov. 3. Its last bigger one-day gain was April 9, 2025 (+7.87%).
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